M FAROOQ SHAHSrinagar, Dec 1: If the figures projected by the National Aids Control Organisation are taken seriously, the HIV/AIDS scenario of Jammu and Kashmir looks pretty grim. Officially, there have been 78 deaths since 2000 and there are 1594 confirmed cases of HIV/AIDS in the state, but many dispute these numbers and claim that the actual figures are much higher. “I’d say the number of deaths could be more,” said Dr Mushtaq Siddiqui, who heads the Immunology Department at the state’s premier healthcare facility, SKIMS, Srinagar. He said the stigma attached with the disease has made it all the more difficult to make a correct estimation. The NACO projects 40,000 Kashmiris infected with HIV/AIDS by the end of 2010, and warns that the disease could kill 20,000 people by the end of 2015. Records available with the State Aids Control Society put the number of persons having contracted the infection at 1594 compared to 1999, when only two HIV positive cases were reported. Many questioned whether the state was sleeping over a heap of dynamite. Dr. M A Wani, Project Director State Aids Control Society was not one of them, saying that in light of the recently conducted sentinel survey which indicated a zero prevalence of HIV/AIDS in the valley, there was nothing to worry about. “As compared to the 1.5 in 2003, the HIV/AIDS prevalence in the state has come down to 0.3 in 2008.” About the NACO’s figures, Dr Wani said those were only projected figures. “If we do nothing to thwart the advances of the disease, the figures could go as projected.” “The figures are a result of hypothetical, scientific and mathematical model projections,” head of Social and Preventive Medicine at Government Medical College, Srinagar, Dr Muneer Ahmad Masoodi said. Dr Wani said the SACS has been on the forefront of the battle against HIV/AIDS in the state. “Our educational programmes have been highly successful and there’s nothing to worry about,” Dr Wani said. “It, however, does not mean that we should sit back and relax. HIV/AIDS has the menacing potential of popping its head out of nowhere.” Dr. Siddiqui also warned against complacency, as according to him the sentinel survey ‘suffers’ from certain inherent flaws and the 0.3 prevalence’ could be quite misleading. Dr. Wani disagrees. “Fortunately, ours is a low profile state in terms of HIV infections,” he said. “When I say low profile, what I mean is that the percentage of cases is less than one per cent in antenatal women and less that five percent in high-risk groups.” In spite of being a low prevalence risk zone, with an infection rate among high-risk groups standing at 0.3 per cent, the statistics in Kashmir are fast changing. The shifting demographics are the most significant factor in transmitting the virus, and it has wreaked real havoc. Concentrations of migrant labourers, truck drivers, security personnel and the influx of tourists, yatris invariably pose a serious threat. If the survey of the SACS revealing 400 active homosexuals in the state is taken for granted, the scenario may assume a dangerous proposition. With over half a million security forces stationed in Jammu and Kashmir, the figures indicate a dangerous trend among security personnel. The increased presence of police, military and paramilitary forces in the state has added to the risk because of the frequency of HIV/AIDS among security personnel. Border Security Force (BSF) and Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel are among the majority of cases detected in the SKIMS. “Since the inception of the AIDS centre at SKIMS in 1986, we’ve screened almost 20728 people here, of which 193 were found HIV positive,” said Dr. Siddiqui. “It’s worthwhile to note that most of them belonged to security forces, mainly the CRPF and the BSF who had readied for a voluntary testing.” “One of the locals from Uri had contracted the virus after he disclosed that he and several army personnel had had sex with the same woman,” a doctor in the SKIMS said. “Only last month, a patient died of AIDS in Kashmir taking the toll to 8.” According to the SKIMS sources, a villager contracted the disease after he visited a chemist shop which was frequented by army personnel. “The chemist might have given the poor fellow some injection with the same syringe and needle he might have used for the army personnel,” said the doctor. It is practically difficult to determine the number of army and security personnel infected with HIV/AIDS. “They’re not sharing information with the local organisations here,” Dr Muneer said. He expressed satisfaction over the present HIV scenario of Kashmir. “Traditionally, free mixing of sexes is not encouraged in Muslim societies, hence the prevalence is low among them the world over.” The SACS has been active in the state since 1999, spending millions annually with separate allocation for a multitude of peripheral activities such as School AIDS, a student awareness programme. The society is financed by NACO and the World Bank. Their awareness programmes extended to security agencies including CRPF, BSF, and the army, have to a large extent helped keep the disease from assuming dangerous propositions, according to SACS. “Over 34,000 people volunteered for the testing which shows the level of awareness in the state.” Dr Wani said. “This is also one of the successful parameters of AIDS control programme.” However, J&K lags far behind Himachal Pradesh, a neighbouring state with a smaller population. According to reports, HP has 33 Integrated Counselling and Testing Centres (ICTC), against only 22 in Jammu and Kashmir, exposing the state to considerable risk. “There’s no need to set up more ICTCs in the state,” Dr Wani said. “Whether the scenario takes a turn for the worse,” warned Dr. Muneer Ahmad Masoodi, “depends on whether the local populace is able to appreciate and respond to the considerable dangers AIDS continues to pose.
Appeared in Greater Kashmir, December 2, 2008
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment